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[Lidwina]

I came across the website at www.bioweather.com.au
where they claim that the number and severity of cyclones is to increase with global warming.

I could not verify this anywhere else. Could someone tell me the science behind it - if the claim has substance.

Also, has anyone seen the website. The word bioweather is news to me, even so I can categorically say that I'm weather sensitive. They claim to be able to forecast weather and health - actually the do just that. Any comments?

[Troy V.R]

Channel 7 recently had a segment relating to this. they had a few storm chasers on and they were explaining how in recent years the frequency and ferocity of storms has increased. 1 storm chaser pointed out a particular cloud band while storm chasing in western Sydney and made the comment "If the same cloud band was seen in America, the Tornado alarms would be sounding."

In my personal opinion i believe that global warming is leading to stronger, more violent storms. it is not particularly hard to notice that the number of damaging storms has increased in previous years.

-Troy
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[Mike ONeill]

I was lucky enough to get a night off and attend Prof Greg Holland's lecture and presentation on just this thing, although it was regarding the increase in cyclone and hurricane frequencies over the last 10 years worldwide.

Greg is the world's leading authority on hurricanes. He's been a meteorologist for almost all his life and was until last year worked for NASA and NOAA so he is someone with some expertise in this area.

I received his PowerPoint presentation in full from the bureau here in Darwin as I wanted to keep it for reference. Some of the stats that were discussed by Prof Holland horrified me with regards to what minute changes it would take to have a CAT2 cyclone or hurricane increase to CAT5 status.

As little as 1-2 degrees in sea surface temp alters a hurricane's strength enormously over its life span. It takes as little as 24 hours for new cyclones to track in the same waters as previous storms have - so although the SST would appear to drop whilst the energy is being drawn from the storm, in fact it matters little once a new system ramps up and begins its track. There's enough energy within the first 50-100 meters of water to support new hurricane development in the same locations.

He discussed the fact that almost all the hurricanes in the USA reach CAT4-5 status over the past 5 years - and some recent years have proved that! Even our cyclones in Australia are becoming more powerful and it has not gone unnoticed. The only reason we do not have accurate numbers on the frequency of stronger cyclones is that records have not been kept on such things in detail over a longer period for comparison.

Climatic changes due to global warming - well actually the Greenhouse effect and warming are two different things...the greenhouse effect has always been a part of the planet's 'climate', without it there would be a virtual ice age...so that's another story..but global warming, through humankind is a real and dangerous entity that I guess we all have to try to reduce. Global carbon numbers in parts per million 30 years ago were 211. Now data shows that it is up to 380PPM - that's a massive swing against the atmosphere. Whilst the blanket that surrounds our planet is there to protect us, the global warming is seen as a result of too much carbon adding thickness to this blanket and hence cooking us and altering weather, which it naturally would.

Greg Holland said that whilst storms in some respects may seem stronger it is in fact that people have moved into areas where stronger hurricanes would have, in the past, not affected the populous in such a way. We've tended to populate in areas where these storms are more prevalent...a bit like building a new suburb here in Darwin's northern coastal parts and yeah - it's in a storm surge zone. Go figure.

Darwin was lucky that STC Monica did not have a direct hit on Darwin, he suggested that the damage would be chaotic and massive. As with some tropical cities and towns, one does not know what to expect, regardless of building codes, if one has not been impacted by a CAT4-5 cyclone over a long period to test such things and the vegetation around Darwin was enough to give him cause to concern since he had not been back to Darwin since gong through Tracy when he was working that fateful night at the Bureau!

I'm searching for the PP presentation so I can add some details from it to this discussion. There's lots of pros and cons on the subject, even scientists who were long time skeptics have seen the proof for themselves that warming does influence weather - it has to!
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Ìèíè èãðà Âåñåëàÿ ôåðìà 3. Ëåäíèêîâûé ïåðèîä ïîðàäóåò Âàñ ñâîåé êðàñèâîé ãðàôèêîé è çàõâàòûâàþùèì ñþæåòîì. Íà íàøåì èãðîâîì ñàéòå Âû ñìîæåòå «ñêà÷àòü èãðó Âåñåëàÿ ôåðìà 3. Ëåäíèêîâûé ïåðèîä» áåñïëàòíî.

Íîâîãîäíåå äîïîëíåíèå ê èãðå "Âåñåëàÿ ôåðìà 3". Êðàñîòêà Ñêàðëåòò ïîìîãëà áàáóøêå ðàñïëàòèòüñÿ ñ äîëãàìè è ïîñòðîèëà äëÿ íåå ðàí÷î. Òåïåðü îíà îòïðàâëÿåòñÿ çà Ïîëÿðíûé êðóã, íà ðîäèíó Äåäà Ìîðîçà. Ñòàðèê çàõâîðàë, à åñëè Ñêàðëåòò íå ïîìîæåò åìó óïðàâèòüñÿ ñ õîçÿéñòâîì — äåòè ìîãóò îñòàòüñÿ áåç ïðàçäíèêà.

Äåâóøêå íóæíî íàëàäèòü ïðîèçâîäñòâî ìîðîæåíîãî, íîâîãîäíèõ ïîäàðêîâ è ìàñêàðàäíûõ êîñòþìîâ, à äëÿ íà÷àëà — çàíÿòüñÿ ðàçâåäåíèåì ïèíãâèíîâ, ìîðæåé è… ìàìîíòîâ! Ìîõíàòûå ãèãàíòû — çàìå÷àòåëüíûå ïîìîùíèêè â ðàáîòå, îíè óìåþò ëåïèòü îãðîìíûå ñíåæêè, êîòîðûå âïîñëåäñòâèè ìîæíî ïåðåðàáîòàòü â ñíåæíûå ñëàäîñòè. Ãëàâíîå — óñïåâàòü êîðìèòü ñâîèõ ïîäîïå÷íûõ, çàêàçûâàÿ â ãîðîäå äëÿ íèõ óãîùåíèå, âêóñíîå ñâåæåå ñåíî.

 èãðå ïîÿâèëîñü íåñêîëüêî íîâûõ õîçÿéñòâåííûõ ïîñòðîåê, â òîì ÷èñëå — ïðåññîâî÷íûé öåõ, ãäå èç ñíåãà äåëàåòñÿ ôðóêòîâûé ëåä, è ñêóëüïòóðíàÿ ìàñòåðñêàÿ, â êîòîðîé èç îáû÷íîãî ãîòîâèòñÿ ôèãóðíîå ìîðîæåíîå. Óâåëè÷èëîñü è êîëè÷åñòâî ïðîèçâîäèìûõ ïðîäóêòîâ. Àññîðòèìåíò ïîïîëíèëñÿ äþæèíîé íîâûõ òîâàðîâ, êîòîðûå ìîæíî îòâåçòè â ãîðîä è âûãîäíî ïðîäàòü. ×òîáû ïðåîäîëåòü âñå ñóãðîáû è òîðîñû, âàì ïîíàäîáèòñÿ ñïåöèàëüíàÿ òåõíèêà — íà ñìåíó îáû÷íûì àâòîìîáèëÿì è ãðóçîâè÷êàì ïðèøëè ìîùíûå ñíåãîõîäû, ñïîñîáíûå ïðîåõàòü ïî ëþáîìó áåçäîðîæüþ.

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Æåëàåì Âàì ïðèÿòíîé è âåñåëîé èãðû â Âåñåëàÿ ôåðìà 3. Ëåäíèêîâûé ïåðèîä!

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